Each source gets an Admiralty (NATO STANAG 2511) reliability letter plus a 0–100% score. Each claim gets an information-credibility digit.
In notes, claims are tagged like (F3, [[Steve Wembi (X)]], x.com/wembi_steve/status/…, 30 Oct 2026): source letter + credibility digit, source note, post, post date.
Score rubric (0–100)
| Factor | Points | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Affiliation / propaganda incentive | 0–25 | independent professional 25 · independent anonymous 15 · state/party outlet 5 · influence operation 0 |
| Access | 0–20 | firsthand with named sources 20 · own-forces firsthand 15–20 · mixed 12 · aggregator 8 · relay of party claims 4 |
| Verifiability | 0–15 | coordinates, dates, geolocatable media 15 · dated but unlocated 8 · undated, unlocated 3 |
| Corroboration in spot-checks | 0–30 | 30 × (hits + 0.5 × partials) / checkable claims; capped at 15 if fewer than 5 checkable claims |
| Fabrication history | 0–10 | none known 10 · errors corrected 7 · unretracted inflation or recycled claims 3 · documented fabrication 0 |
Score → letter: A ≥85 · B 70–84 · C 50–69 · D 30–49 · E <30 · F cannot be judged (too little data, or not reviewed). Party channels get split scores by claim type (e.g. own-forces activity vs casualty and enemy claims), scored separately with the same factors.
Information credibility (per claim)
1 confirmed · 2 probably true · 3 possibly true · 4 doubtful · 5 improbable · 6 cannot be judged A digit is upgraded when an independent outlet (graded B or better) confirms the claim. Repeated reposts by the same account, or relays by allied accounts, are not corroboration.
Monitored accounts
| Source | Access | Letter | % | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Michombero (X) | Single post reviewed (3 Nov 2026) | F | n/a | |
| Steve Wembi (X) | Single post reviewed (3 Nov 2026) | F | n/a |
Outlets cited in the situation report
| Outlet | Letter | % | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFP / Reuters (incl. via Africanews, Courthouse News) | B | 82 | Professional wires; access to the rebel-held east is limited, so they often relay official and rebel statements side by side. |
| US Treasury / State Department | B | 80 | Authoritative on the sanctions themselves; the underlying allegations rest on evidence it does not publish. |
| HRW / IPIS / The Sentry | B | 78 | Field research and documented methods; advocacy goals, but careful on sourcing. |
| Radio Okapi | B | 75 | UN (MONUSCO) radio with local correspondents; careful and cautious on tolls, but UN-aligned. |
| Jeune Afrique / The Africa Report | B | 75 | Well-sourced regional press; access-dependent. |
| Critical Threats / ACLED | B | 75 | Systematic analysis and event coding; limited by inputs. |
| Africanews | B | 70 | Euronews-owned; mostly wire-based. |
| Actualite.cd | C | 60 | Leading Kinshasa news site; quick, but mostly unnamed ‘security’ and ‘local’ sources and the government’s vocabulary. |
| Wikipedia | C | 60 | Tertiary; only as good as each footnote. |
| SOS Médias Burundi | C | 55 | Exiled Burundian outlet; good local sources in the Ruzizi and Fizi area, anti-Bujumbura slant. |
| ACP (Agence Congolaise de Presse) | C | 55 | State news agency; accurate on the president’s schedule, the official line otherwise. |
| SOFREP / Fronts | C | 50 | Secondary analysis and commentary; fine for the gist, weak for numbers. |
| KT Press / IGIHE / The New Times | D | 40 | Rwandan pro-government outlets; relay FRN/M23 sources and claims (e.g. mass FARDC defections) without verification. |
Grades for outlets are desk assessments (method, ownership, known errors), not new spot-checks; account grades rest on the spot-checks listed in each source note.